US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

The market indicates a low probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30.

Current market probabilities suggest a 27% chance of a US-Iran nuclear deal by the deadline, with a stronger sentiment against it at 73%. The Pulse AI aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating a 29% chance for a deal, reflecting a consensus that the deal is unlikely to materialize.

• 1 Market shows a strong preference for 'NO' on the deal's likelihood.
• 2 Pulse AI probabilities are closely aligned with market sentiment.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 75 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.