US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?

The market strongly favors no US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a 94.5% likelihood that a US-Iran nuclear deal will not occur by March 31, with a low probability of 5.5% for a deal. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows strong skepticism towards a deal by the deadline.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher but still indicates low chances.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is balanced and fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 75 indicates moderate certainty in the current probabilities.
• 5 Time to expiry of 533 hours allows for potential developments but remains limited.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.