US strike on Mexico by March 31?

Market indicates a low probability of a US strike on Mexico by March 31.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of a US strike on Mexico, with a 94.8% probability for 'NO'. The market appears fairly priced with no edge, reflecting a high level of confidence at 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO'.
• 2 Key factors include geopolitical stability and diplomatic relations.
• 3 Historical base rates for similar events suggest low likelihood.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with no significant fluctuations.
• 5 Time pressure is minimal with over 7000 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

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