US strikes Iraq by March 31

The market predicts a 100% chance of US strikes in Iraq by March 31.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus with a 100% probability for US strikes in Iraq by the end of March. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly lower probability of 94%, indicating some uncertainty. The NO side appears undervalued by 6 points, suggesting potential for market adjustment.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming sentiment for US military action.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a strong but slightly less certain prediction.
• 3 The NO side is undervalued, suggesting potential for market correction.
• 4 High confidence level of 90/100 reflects strong consensus.
• 5 Time to expiry is limited, adding urgency to the market dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iraqi soil or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iraqi ground territory or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iraqi territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution tim