US strikes Iraq by March 7?

High probability of US strikes in Iraq by March 7, but NO side may be undervalued.

The market indicates a very high probability of US strikes in Iraq by March 7, with a consensus leaning towards YES. However, the NO side appears undervalued by 6 points, suggesting potential market overconfidence in the YES outcome. The confidence level is strong, but the significant time until expiry leaves room for changing dynamics.

• 1 Market probability for YES is extremely high at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower probability for YES at 93.95%.
• 3 The NO side is undervalued by 6 points, indicating potential market mispricing.
• 4 Confidence in the prediction is rated at 90 out of 100.
• 5 With 398 hours until expiry, market conditions may evolve significantly.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iraqi soil or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iraqi ground territory or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iraqi territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution tim