US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Market suggests a low probability of US strikes in Yemen by March 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 38.9% chance of US strikes in Yemen by March 31, 2026, with a stronger consensus against it at 61.1%. The AI model slightly adjusts this probability, reflecting a similar skepticism about the likelihood of such military action.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The market probability is closely aligned with AI predictions.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty in forecasts.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 The edge suggests the market is fairly priced with minimal bias.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the