US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?

High probability for a US-Iran meeting by June 30, 2026, but NO side may be undervalued.

The market indicates an 88.5% probability for a meeting between the US and Iran by the specified date, suggesting strong sentiment towards a diplomatic engagement. However, the Pulse AI probability at 81% and the edge of -7.5 for the NO side indicate that the market may not fully account for potential obstacles to such a meeting.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a meeting.
• 2 The NO side is perceived as undervalued by 7.5 points.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 2297 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Geopolitical dynamics could rapidly shift probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.