US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 15?

Market leans towards no strike on Fordow by March 15, with a 67% probability.

The prediction market indicates a 67% likelihood that there will not be a US/Israel strike on the Fordow nuclear facility by March 15. The Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance of a strike at 36.5%, but overall sentiment favors the 'no' outcome. With a confidence level of 60/100 and 433 hours until expiry, the market appears fairly priced.

• 1 Current market probability favors a 'no' outcome at 67%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of a strike at 36.5%.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is significant at 433 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with a 3.5 edge.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market.

U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.