US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?

Low market probability for a US/Israel strike in Yemen by March 14 suggests minimal expectation.

The prediction market shows a 10% probability for a US/Israel strike in Yemen by March 14, indicating a strong consensus against such an event occurring. The Pulse AI probability slightly increases this expectation to 13.5%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60 out of 100. With 481 hours until the deadline, the market appears fairly priced with a small edge.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards 'NO'.
• 2 Historical context shows low frequency of US/Israel strikes in Yemen.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable with no major fluctuations.
• 4 Time pressure is moderate with 481 hours remaining.
• 5 Confidence level indicates some uncertainty in predictions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day aft