US/Israel strike Yemen by March 2?

The market strongly favors no US/Israel strike on Yemen by March 2.

Current market probabilities indicate a 0% chance of a US/Israel strike on Yemen by the specified date, with a consensus leaning heavily towards 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability for a strike, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against a strike.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the current assessment.
• 4 Time to expiry allows for potential geopolitical developments.
• 5 Low liquidity may affect market responsiveness to news.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day aft