US/Israel strike Yemen by March 3?

The market strongly favors a NO outcome for a US/Israel strike in Yemen by March 3.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% belief that there will be no strike by the deadline. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a very low likelihood of a strike occurring, with only a 2% probability assigned to a YES outcome.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against a strike.
• 2 Pulse AI probability closely mirrors market sentiment.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO outcome.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, limiting potential changes.
• 5 Current geopolitical climate appears stable regarding Yemen.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day aft