US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?

Market shows a slight lean towards a US/Israel strike in Yemen by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a 55.5% probability for a US/Israel strike in Yemen by the end of March, suggesting a close contest with the NO side at 44.5%. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors the NO side, indicating potential undervaluation of that outcome. With a confidence level of 60 out of 100 and 481 hours until expiry, the situation remains uncertain.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans slightly towards a strike occurring.
• 2 The NO side is perceived as undervalued by 7.5 points.
• 3 Confidence in the market is moderate at 60/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 481 hours.
• 5 Geopolitical developments could significantly influence probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day aft