Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?

High probability of 30 to 59 tornadoes in the U.S. in February 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus with a 99.45% probability for the occurrence of 30 to 59 tornadoes in February 2026. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI's assessment of 99%, indicating a well-aligned market sentiment. The edge of -0.45 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current data.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly in favor of tornado occurrence.
• 2 The high probability reflects historical trends of tornado activity in February.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, supporting the current pricing.
• 4 The confidence level of 65/100 indicates moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to future market movements.

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).

Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.

As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on March 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.

If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.

The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.

If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this