Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Low market probability for 4 Fed rate cuts in 2026 indicates skepticism.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against the likelihood of four Federal Reserve rate cuts occurring in 2026, with a 95.75% probability for 'NO.' The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that market participants are generally skeptical about significant monetary easing in the near future.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors no rate cuts in 2026.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is narrow.
• 3 Historical trends show rate cuts are less common in stable economies.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time until expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.