Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

The market strongly favors no Fed rate cuts in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of five Fed rate cuts occurring in 2026, with a 96.45% chance of 'NO'. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 5.55%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 75/100.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily leans towards no rate cuts in 2026.
• 2 Current probabilities suggest a stable economic outlook.
• 3 Historical data shows fewer than five cuts in similar timeframes.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears adequate for current trading.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential market shifts.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.