Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

The market strongly predicts no Fed rate cuts in 2026.

With a market probability of 97.85% for 'NO', participants largely believe that six rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 are unlikely. The Pulse AI probability also supports this view, indicating a consensus against significant rate reductions in that timeframe.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors no rate cuts in 2026.
• 2 Market probabilities indicate a strong consensus against multiple cuts.
• 3 Historical trends show fewer rate cuts in similar economic conditions.
• 4 Liquidity in the market appears stable, reflecting confidence in current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts based on economic developments.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.