Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

The market strongly favors no significant Fed rate cuts in 2026.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of seven Fed rate cuts occurring in 2026, with a consensus leaning heavily towards 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability for 'YES' is at 1.35%, indicating minimal confidence in rate cuts.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 3.35%, but still low.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced with little room for mispricing.
• 4 A confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate certainty in current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant at 7129 hours, allowing for potential market shifts.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.