Will A Friend of Dorothy win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for A Friend of Dorothy winning Best Live Action Short Film.

With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', there is a consensus that A Friend of Dorothy is unlikely to win. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment with a 99% probability for 'NO', indicating a strong alignment between market and AI predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests a well-established consensus among participants.
• 3 Historical trends indicate that films with lower visibility often struggle to win.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable, reflecting consistent participant interest.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to potential shifts.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.