Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the Billboard #1 song for the week of April 4?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for Harry Styles' song being #1 on April 4.

Current market probabilities indicate a 99.4% chance that 'American Girls - Harry Styles' will not be the Billboard #1 song for the week of April 4, with a low AI probability of 2.1% for a 'YES' outcome. The edge of 1.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a consensus against the song achieving the top position.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' with a 99.4% probability.
• 2 AI model predicts a low chance of 2.1% for a 'YES' outcome.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 indicates a balanced market pricing.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, suggesting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 83 hours, allowing for potential shifts in trends.

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”.

This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of April 4, 2026”.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.