Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Amy Madigan has a 41.75% chance of winning Best Supporting Actress.

The prediction market indicates a 41.75% probability of Amy Madigan winning Best Supporting Actress, with a stronger consensus against her at 58.25%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower chance of 37.25%, reflecting a cautious outlook on her prospects. With 138 hours until the awards, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans against Madigan winning.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a competitive race for the award.
• 3 Historical trends show fluctuating support for nominees as the event nears.
• 4 Liquidity in the market suggests moderate interest in this category.
• 5 Time pressure could influence shifts in sentiment leading up to the awards.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress.

If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.