Will Andrew Novak win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

Market shows low confidence in Andrew Novak winning the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The prediction market indicates a 0.45% probability of Andrew Novak winning the event, suggesting strong skepticism about his chances. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 1.95%, indicating a consensus that he is unlikely to secure a victory. With a confidence level of 60/100, the market appears to be fairly priced with a slight edge.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome for Novak's win.
• 2 Pulse AI probability is slightly higher but still indicates low confidence.
• 3 Current sentiment reflects skepticism about Novak's chances.
• 4 The edge of 1.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future shifts.

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament.

If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".

If an unlisted player wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If no winner is announced by March 14, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).