Will another country strike Iran by March 7?

The market strongly predicts no country will strike Iran by March 7.

Current market sentiment indicates a 0% probability of another country striking Iran by the specified date. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of such an event occurring, suggesting a consensus on stability in the region. With a confidence level of 85/100, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against military action.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low risk.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is accurately priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 85/100 reflects strong market stability.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential geopolitical shifts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.

The resolution source