Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?

Low probability of an E.U. country striking Iran by April 30.

The prediction market indicates a 5% chance of an E.U. country striking Iran by the end of April, with a strong consensus leaning towards 'NO' at 95%. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 8.5%, but overall confidence in the market remains moderate at 65 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows strong skepticism about military action.
• 2 Pulse AI's probability is slightly higher, indicating some uncertainty.
• 3 Current geopolitical climate suggests low likelihood of strikes.
• 4 Confidence level of 65 indicates moderate market stability.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.