Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?

Low probability of an E.U. country striking Iran by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against the likelihood of any E.U. country striking Iran, with a probability of only 13.5% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that geopolitical tensions may not escalate to military action in this timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Geopolitical stability in the region is a key factor.
• 3 Historical data shows low rates of military action by E.U. countries in similar contexts.
• 4 Market liquidity appears adequate for current trading activity.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 528 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.