The market strongly favors no expulsion of an Israeli ambassador by March 31.
With a market probability of 99.8% for 'NO', there is a strong consensus against the expulsion of an Israeli ambassador from any European country by the end of March. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability for 'YES' at 1%, indicating minimal expectation for such an event. The edge of 0.8 suggests that the market is fairly priced based on current sentiment and analysis.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned European country by the respective government between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a European country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that an Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice, regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market