Will Arco win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Arco has a low chance of winning Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.

The prediction market indicates a very low probability of Arco winning, with a market probability of only 0.95% for a YES outcome. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability, which suggests a slightly higher chance but still firmly favors the NO outcome at 95.55%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests limited belief in Arco's chances.
• 3 Historical trends show animated features often follow critical acclaim.
• 4 Liquidity in this market appears stable but low overall.
• 5 Time pressure is a factor with only 37 hours until the Oscars.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.