Will Ariana Grande win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ariana Grande is not expected to win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Ariana Grande winning, with a 0% probability of a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of her victory. With 116 hours until the event, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Grande.
• 2 The probability of her winning is assessed at 0% by the market.
• 3 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance of 2% for a YES outcome.
• 4 The market is considered fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 5 Time remaining until the Oscars is 116 hours, allowing for potential changes.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress.

If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.