Will Austin Smotherman win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

Austin Smotherman is highly unlikely to win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The prediction market indicates a 0% probability of Austin Smotherman winning the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational, suggesting strong consensus against his chances. The Pulse AI corroborates this with a 1% probability for a win, indicating minimal expectation for a change in sentiment. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a high confidence level of 90 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Smotherman.
• 2 The probability of a YES outcome is extremely low at 1%.
• 3 Market appears to be accurately priced with an edge of 1.
• 4 High confidence level suggests stability in current predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, affecting potential market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament.

If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".

If an unlisted player wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If no winner is announced by March 14, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).