Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Australia has a low chance of winning Eurovision 2026 at 5.4%.

The current market indicates a 5.4% probability for Australia to win Eurovision 2026, with a strong consensus against it at 94.6%. The market appears fairly priced, suggesting no significant misalignment between the prediction and current sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Australia.
• 2 The confidence level of 75/100 indicates a moderate certainty in the current probabilities.
• 3 No edge suggests that the market is accurately reflecting expectations.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in public opinion.
• 5 Historical performance of Australia in Eurovision may influence future probabilities.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.