Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?

Low probability of Bahrain striking Iran by March 31, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market indicates an 84% likelihood that Bahrain will not strike Iran by the end of March, with a consensus leaning towards a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also supports this sentiment, suggesting a slightly higher probability for a YES at 19.5%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of a YES strike is relatively low at 16%.
• 3 Market pricing appears fair with a small edge of 3.5.
• 4 Moderate confidence level suggests some uncertainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding to market unpredictability.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.