Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Low probability for Benicio Del Toro to win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars.

The prediction market indicates a 1.55% chance of Benicio Del Toro winning Best Supporting Actor, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability of 5.05%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 60/100, indicating uncertainty in the market's sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the Pulse AI estimate.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market dynamics.
• 5 Limited liquidity may affect the responsiveness of the market.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.