Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Benny Safdie is unlikely to win Best Director, with a 0% market probability.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Benny Safdie winning Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards, with a 100% probability of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting a minimal chance of victory, which indicates that market participants are confident in their assessment.

• 1 Market probability shows complete confidence in a NO outcome.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight chance of YES, but it's very low.
• 3 Current sentiment strongly favors other directors over Safdie.
• 4 The market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 2.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, limiting potential shifts in sentiment.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed director who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Director.

If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated director whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.