Will Bugonia win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

Bugonia is unlikely to win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Bugonia winning, with a 99.65% probability of a NO outcome. The AI model also reflects this sentiment, albeit with a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome at 2.35%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with moderate confidence in the current predictions.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Bugonia.
• 2 The market probability indicates a high level of certainty against Bugonia winning.
• 3 AI predictions suggest a slightly more optimistic view for Bugonia but still lean towards NO.
• 4 The edge of 2 indicates that the market is likely accurately priced.
• 5 Confidence level of 65/100 suggests moderate certainty in the current predictions.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.