Will Bugonia win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market strongly favors Bugonia not winning Best Cinematography at the Oscars.

Current market probabilities indicate a 0% chance of Bugonia winning Best Cinematography, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning only a 2% probability to a win, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a confidence level of 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong belief Bugonia will not win.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating low likelihood of a win.
• 3 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is limited, adding urgency to market movements.
• 5 No recent events have indicated a shift in Bugonia's prospects.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Cinematography.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Cinematography when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.