Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Bulgaria's chances of winning Eurovision 2026 are currently very low at 1.45%.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Bulgaria will not win Eurovision 2026, with a probability of 98.55% for a NO outcome. This suggests a consensus among participants that Bulgaria's prospects are minimal at this time, reflecting low confidence in their potential performance.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Bulgaria.
• 2 Bulgaria's historical performance in Eurovision may influence current perceptions.
• 3 The market appears to be fairly priced with no significant edge detected.
• 4 Confidence level is relatively high at 80/100, indicating strong conviction in the NO prediction.
• 5 Time until the event is over 1636 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.