Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for Butterfly winning Best Animated Short Film.

With a market probability of 99.95% for 'NO', it indicates a strong consensus against Butterfly winning. The Pulse AI probability also aligns closely, suggesting minimal expectation for a win. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 85 out of 100.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' at 99.95%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slight chance for 'YES' at 1%.
• 3 The edge of 0.95 indicates fair pricing in the market.
• 4 Confidence level is relatively high at 85/100.
• 5 Lack of time pressure may stabilize current probabilities.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Animated Short Film.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Short Film when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.