Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?

The market indicates a 55% chance Carlos Alcaraz will not win the 2026 Men's French Open.

The current market probability shows a slight edge against Carlos Alcaraz winning the 2026 Men's French Open, with a 55% likelihood of a NO outcome. The market appears fairly priced with no significant edge, reflecting a balanced sentiment among participants. Confidence in this prediction is moderate at 75 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability shows a slight preference for NO at 55%.
• 2 Current sentiment reflects uncertainty about Alcaraz's future performance.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 75/100, indicating some conviction in the market's stance.
• 4 No significant edge suggests the market is efficiently priced.
• 5 Time until the event is substantial, allowing for many potential developments.

The 2026 French Open is scheduled for May 18 - June 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the French Open (https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.