Will Cate Blanchett win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market indicates a strong belief that Cate Blanchett will not win Best Actress.

Current market probabilities show a 100% confidence in a NO outcome for Cate Blanchett winning Best Actress. The Pulse AI also aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting minimal likelihood of a win. With 79 hours until the event, the market appears to be fairly priced with a high level of confidence.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome for Blanchett.
• 2 Pulse AI closely mirrors market sentiment with a 98% NO probability.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is likely accurately priced.
• 4 High confidence level of 80/100 suggests strong market conviction.
• 5 Time pressure of 79 hours may limit significant shifts in probabilities.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Actress.

If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.