Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

The market indicates a low probability of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan by June 30.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong consensus against the likelihood of a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, with a 92.5% chance of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for 'YES'. Overall, the market appears to be fairly priced with a confidence level of 80 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability for blockade is low at 7.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher likelihood at 9.5%.
• 3 The confidence level indicates strong market consensus.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 2705 hours, allowing for potential developments.
• 5 Current sentiment reflects a stable geopolitical environment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying blockade is:
- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.
- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).
- Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied.

A qualifying blockade is not:
- Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access).
- Purely economic or