Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

The market strongly favors that China will not unban Bitcoin by 2027.

Current market probabilities indicate a 95.35% likelihood that China will not unban Bitcoin by 2027, reflecting a strong consensus against the possibility. The Pulse AI also supports this view, with a slightly higher probability for a 'yes' outcome, but still firmly in the 'no' camp. The market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2, suggesting stable sentiment around this prediction.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors a 'no' outcome for Bitcoin's unban.
• 2 Market probabilities are closely aligned with the Pulse AI predictions.
• 3 The confidence level of 80/100 indicates a strong belief in the current market stance.
• 4 The time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Liquidity appears stable, with no major fluctuations in betting activity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.