Will Chris Kirk win the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?

Chris Kirk has a low probability of winning the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Chris Kirk winning, with a 99.55% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of victory for Kirk at 1.95%, indicating a general skepticism about his chances in this event.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome for Kirk.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES, but still low.
• 3 The edge indicates the market is fairly priced at this time.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding an element of unpredictability.

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament.

If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".

If an unlisted player wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard tournament this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If no winner is announced by March 14, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).