Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?

Low probability for Clavicular as Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st.

The market shows a strong consensus against Clavicular becoming Iran's next Supreme Leader, with a probability of only 0.30% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of this event occurring. With a confidence level of 85/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market appears stable.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Clavicular's political standing appears weak among potential leaders.
• 3 Historical trends suggest low turnover in Iran's Supreme Leadership.
• 4 Market liquidity indicates limited interest in betting on this outcome.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 467 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.