Will Colin Farrell win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Colin Farrell is unlikely to win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Colin Farrell winning Best Actor, with a 100% probability for 'NO'. The AI model aligns closely with this sentiment, indicating minimal expectation for a shift in this outcome.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors 'NO' at 100%.
• 2 AI probability suggests a slight chance for 'YES' at 2%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 80/100, reflecting strong market sentiment.
• 5 Time to expiry is 146 hours, allowing for potential last-minute changes.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.