Will Dear Me - Diane Warren: Relentless win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for Diane Warren's song winning at the Oscars.

Current market probabilities indicate a low likelihood of 'Dear Me' winning Best Original Song, with a 99.35% chance of 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, suggesting that the market is fairly priced given the current confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market heavily favors a 'NO' outcome with 99.35% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 4.15%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is 132 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Original Song.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Song when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.