Will Diego Luna win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Diego Luna is highly unlikely to win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Diego Luna winning Best Supporting Actor, with a 100% probability of NO. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, assigning only a 2% chance of a YES outcome, indicating a stable market expectation.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors NO at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment at 98% NO.
• 3 Confidence level is relatively high at 75/100, indicating stable expectations.
• 4 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced without significant mispricing.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 94 hours, adding urgency to any potential shifts.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.