Will Dwayne Johnson win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Dwayne Johnson is highly unlikely to win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Dwayne Johnson winning Best Actor, with a 0% probability. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment with a 2% probability for a win, indicating a significant belief that he will not secure the award. Given the high confidence level of 80/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market appears stable in its assessment.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors a NO outcome at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability slightly suggests a YES at 2%, but still favors NO.
• 3 The market is perceived as fairly priced with an edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is high at 80/100, indicating strong market conviction.
• 5 Time to expiry is 150 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.