Will Elle Fanning win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Low probability for Elle Fanning to win Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Elle Fanning winning, with a 98.8% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a low chance of 4.7% for a YES, indicating a general lack of confidence in her candidacy. With 128 hours until the event, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests limited belief in her chances.
• 3 Historical trends indicate low volatility in this category.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable but skewed against Fanning.
• 5 Time remaining allows for potential shifts but confidence is moderate.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress.

If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.