Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

Market predicts Elon Musk will tweet fewer than 20 times from April 3-10, 2026.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus that Elon Musk will post 0-19 tweets during the specified week, with a probability of 99.85% for 'NO'. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability, indicating a high level of confidence in this outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO' on tweet volume.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI suggests a consensus on low tweeting.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk may support low engagement predictions.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, indicating confidence in current pricing.
• 5 Time pressure is moderate with 245 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 3 12:00 PM ET to April 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.