Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

The market strongly favors Elon Musk posting 20 or more tweets during the specified week.

With a market probability of 99.95% for NO, it suggests a strong consensus that Musk will not post 0-19 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, indicating a low likelihood of fewer tweets, which reflects the general expectation of his tweeting behavior.

• 1 Market sentiment overwhelmingly favors NO with 99.95% probability.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 2.05%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced based on current data.
• 4 Confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in the prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 203 hours, adding urgency to the market dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 10 12:00 PM ET to March 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.