Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?

Market strongly favors Musk posting 20 or more tweets during the specified period.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (99.95%) that Elon Musk will post 20 or more tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026. This aligns with the Pulse AI probability of 97.95%, suggesting a consensus that Musk's tweeting activity will exceed the lower threshold significantly.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors the NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap between market and AI predictions is minimal.
• 3 Historical tweeting patterns of Musk suggest high activity levels.
• 4 Market appears to be fairly priced with a low edge of 2.
• 5 Time to expiry is relatively short at 227 hours, adding urgency.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from March 27 12:00 PM ET to April 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.